Here are 10 players who saw a significant change in ADP this week, according to the National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC).
Should you fade the hype or attack the value? Let’s check it out.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys
WR Giacomo Washington suffered a Jones fracture in practice this week and will likely lose 10 weeks.
With Amari Cooper now in Cleveland e Michael Gallup probably will miss the first two games, choice of the third round Jalen TolbertADP went from 242 in May down to 155 this week and perhaps still features value at that point in a high-octane Dallas offense.
Julio Jones, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No surprises here. Jones went from being completely off the radar to signing with a team that threw 5,229 yards and 43 passing touchdowns in 2021, leading the championship with 307.6 yards pass per game. Oh and … Tom Brady.
Jones would have picked pick 236 in May, but this week he dropped off the draw at pick 162.
Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite the signature of Jones and Chris Godwin do not start the field in the PUP list, Russell Gage keep going up. It is certainly in a good position (see above), but the choice 87 could be a bit aggressive. I preferred the value I got in May to choice 116.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
The secret is out Cole Kmet. The tight end is a difficult position and Kmet must see a positive TD regression. It is one of my favorite choices in ADP. Kmet saw the second most goals in Chicago (93) behind only Darnell Mooney, and had a better catch rate (64.5%) than Mooney (57.9). The fact that he had zero touchdowns must change. Kmet went from choice 139 in May to choice 125 this week. In the tenth round, I’m still all in.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I guess tweets like these aren’t really moving the needle of the imagination.
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There are justified concerns about this Your TagovailoaSkill with the deep ball, despite his bevy of weapons. Tagavailoa’s Average Goal Depth (aDOT) ranked 34th in the NFL in 2021.
But with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle And Mike Gesicki all set, Tagovailoa may have dropped to a value I finally like now at choice 140. In May, shortly after Hill’s swap, Tagovailoa was going to choice 117.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
This interests me. I’m not sure why Kamara fell instead of moving in the opposite direction after receiving news that the hearing for his impending suspension has been postponed for two months. This probably means that Kamara will at least start the season and maybe play the whole season with the suspension being moved to 2023. Two weeks ago, we feared he might miss most of this season. With an ADP of 23, Kamara is falling at the end of the second / beginning of the third round and probably has some value. In May, Kamara was exiting the draw at choice 18.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have signed Debo Samuel to a shiny new contract that includes running yard bonuses and running touchdown thresholds, and Eli Mitchell’s ADP fell. It’s always hard to predict how 49ers manager Kyle Shanahan will use his running back room, but last season he played against Mitchell whenever he was healthy. And yes, Mitchell still finished with nearly 1,000 yards in just 11 games also played with Deebo as Deebo. Mitchell will go to choice 62 this week after dropping off the board at choice 50 earlier this summer. I like this value.
Antonio GIbson, RB, Washington commanders
Antonio Gibson he was someone I predicted would go bankrupt at his ADP last year, and that’s true, but this year he went from pick 33 in May to pick 62 this week, and suddenly I’m starting to gain interest.
Yes, they signed JD McKissic and that touches his ceiling. Yes, they said they want to lighten Gibson’s load. No, none of those things are fine, but Gibson recorded 10 double-digit PPR games last year and finished with 1,331 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s a decent option in a high turnover position, and if he continues to drop, it’s worth adding.
Kenneth Walker, III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Despite the announcement that Chris Carson will retire, Walker, who just a few weeks ago was going to choice 77, has moved on to choice 93. In the meantime, Rashad PennyThe ADP remained exactly the same, at choice 88. If you believe the Seahawks will lead the rookie down the stretch, that’s a decent value. Just keep in mind for the PPR Championships that the Seahawks have targeted their running backs as fewer than any team in 2021.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin scored a target of 21% in Tampa Bay prior to injury in week 15 of last season, and finished as WR8 based on points per game. Now, despite not having been put on the PUP list to start the camp, Godwin has gone from pick 52 in May to pick 60 this week. Sure, they could have worked it slowly, but we knew that in May. Are Julio Jones and Russell Gage a big threat to Godwin? It seems fantasy managers are worried, but they aren’t, especially if Godwin keeps falling.
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