Newcomers are proof — this is not your father’s N.C.

Monday, October 27th, 2008 at 3:04 pm

CHARLOTTE – They come from Florida, the Rust Belt and the Northeast. And the way they vote is changing the political complexion of North Carolina.

The waves of moderates and independents who have moved here have made this a battleground state, one that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has a chance to win, pollsters say. That’s a massive shift for a state where Sen. Jesse Helms used race in 1990 and 1996 to beat Senate seat rival Harvey Gantt, Charlotte’s only black mayor.

But many of today’s voters weren’t even here then.

Newcomers have everything to do with the state’s being in play, said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Public Life at UNC-Chapel Hill.

Republican political consultant Dee Stewart disagrees. North Carolina is a battleground, he says, because Obama has outspent Republican John McCain and is ahead of him nationally.

Obama “is running further ahead than the Democratic nominees in 2000 and 2004, and some of that is spilling over into North Carolina,” Stewart said. Another factor, he said: “The economy is not performing well right now with a Republican in office.”

Still, he believes the state’s conservative roots are strong and McCain will win here.

Where they come from

People have flocked to North Carolina because of better job opportunities, leaving behind places where the economy has been worse off, such as the Midwest and Florida. Charlotte’s big banks have also drawn transplants from the Northeast, a traditional Democratic stronghold.

Last year, Florida and New York delivered the most newcomers, while three Rust Belt states — Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania — were in the top 10. A Charlotte Observer analysis of county voter registration records shows more than half of Mecklenburg’s eligible voters registered after 1999.

Newcomer Fran Walshin, of Davidson, says she got out of Florida just in time — three years ago, when she could still sell her house. But it’s not all rosy here, she said, noting that as a job recruiter, she meets lots of “devastated” professionals.

“We got in trouble, and now we need a new outlook to get us out of this problem. You can’t speak to the same people to get us out of this mess,” said Walshin, who is in her 60s and will cast a ballot for Obama.

Past predictability

Until now, North Carolina had been a politically predictable state — one that hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1976, when Jimmy Carter was elected. In 2004, President Bush won the state by 12 percentage points over Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina-raised running mate John Edwards.

Polls show McCain and Obama are tied in North Carolina less than two weeks before the election. McCain has visited the state twice, and Obama has been here four times. Both vice presidential picks have made multiple visits. And both campaigns are flooding the airwaves with ads.

But newcomers — 263,000 last year — aren’t the only reason North Carolina is in the election spotlight.

The Democratic Party has held huge voter drives targeting blacks. Then, there are economic and banking woes. The state was late to the slowdown but is now feeling the effects of slumping home prices and rising unemployment. The recent collapse of home-grown, Charlotte-based Wachovia Corp. is yet another reason people are on edge about jobs and the future.

Tina Gerbino, 39, who moved to Charlotte two years ago from Long Island, N.Y., cast her early vote for Obama. It was her first time ever voting. Her issue: the economy. Soon after moving, she lost her job, and her husband can get only part-time hours at his job.